Broadway Analytics
Author:
Chris Kopac ’25Co-Authors:
Faculty Mentor(s):
Samuel Gutekunst, Computer ScienceFunding Source:
James L.D. and Rebecca Roser FundAbstract
Broadway musicals can amass millions of dollars a week, but can also hemorrhage money. Spider Man: Turn Off the Dark lost nearly $60 million throughout its Broadway stint. A common rule of thumb for musicals is that only one in five shows recoup their investment. However, this statistic is usually attributed to “insider sources” and no real data is ever given. This research project explores public data surrounding Broadway musicals to better understand their finances and recoupment rates. We studied all musicals that opened from 2007-2017, comprising 129 musicals, and found that approximately 27% of productions recoup their investments. To find this number, we found two preliminary datasets and scoured online databases for information regarding show recoupment. We were also able to estimate missing values for cost metrics using other related variables. Additionally, this research project looks into the distribution of show profits, revealing that such few shows sustain considerable profits in their productions. For instance, only 8 of the 129 musicals we studied could reasonably have doubled their profits. We also produced a master spreadsheet consisting of every Broadway musical in our studied time period, along with information regarding recoupment, running costs, and other metrics important to our analyses for each show. The findings of this project underscore the inherent difficulty in achieving financial success on Broadway, and provide concrete data to understand what proportion of shows recoup their investment.